Box Office Odds

Weaponize your autism.

Pick a film, set a domestic-total line, and read the odds it clears it — projected from the films it most resembles (same opening size, scale, and season). The exact call you're making on a box-office market, done in one move.

The comps it's projected from

Film	Open	Theaters	Legs	Final

Live on Polymarket — where the money is

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How the odds are built. "Legs" = final gross ÷ opening weekend (the multiplier). We take the film's closest historical comps, read their leg multipliers, and project this film's final total as opening weekend × that multiplier. The spread of the comps becomes a log-normal range, and the odds are the share of that range above your line. Opening weekend predicts final total tightly (R²≈0.93 across 2,585 wide releases) but the multiplier itself swings ~±30%, so these are honest odds with real error bars — a read on the company a film keeps, not a sure thing. Comps are final runs only; the subject can still be in theaters. Data ~48h behind via The Numbers.